Will Michael Phelps Make Olympic History?

The short answer is, yes.

The long answer is, yes, he will surpass the 18-medal haul of Soviet gymnast Larisa Semyonovna Latynina (1956 Melbourne, 1960 Rome and 1964 Tokyo Olympics).

Phelps currently has 17 medals, including the silver he just won in the 400-m relay at the London Olympics. He still has 5 more races to swim. There is no question to that he will win at least 2 more medals to surpass Latynina’s medal count. Even if he cannot add to his 14 gold medals (8 of them at Beijing), it is unlikely that anyone will surpass his 14 golds in the near future.

But then, a prodigy or a phenom will undoubtedly arise somewhere, and what was once deemed insurmountable will fall by the wayside. Remember Bob Beamon's leap of 29 ft. 2.5 in. in the 1968 Mexico City Olympics in 1968? The record stood for 23 years, until 1991, when Mike Powell jumped 29 ft. 4-3/8 in. at the world championship in Tokyo. (But Beamon's jump is still the Olympic record).

After Phelps came in 4^th at the 400 individual medley in London, major newspapers in America and elsewhere printed hysterical headlines of disappointment and dethronement . But inevitably, skills fade, competition gets tougher, time takes its toll. That Phelps has been able to maintain his excellence spanning 3 Olympics - Athens (2004) to Beijing (2008) to London (2012) - is a testimony to his peerless gift. Longevity is a sure sign of greatness. Think Pele, Ali, Michael Jordan.

I just hope that Phelps will keep his word and retire after London. Most celebrities do not do well when the spotlight is no longer on them. The mind whispers: “Take just one more shot at glory. You can do it!” When athletes, whose best days are behind them, continue to act as if time stands still for them and they can bend their bodies to the dictates of their minds, the result is a sad spectacle, tragic even.

Phelps can nurture promising youngsters and prepare them for the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. That will cement his legacy as perhaps the greatest swimmer in history.

Phelps and Destiny

If there was any doubt that Michael Phelps would fulfill his Olympic destiny, it was dispelled by his margin of victory in the 100-meter butterfly. One one-hundredth of a second. Try to divide the blink of an eye into one hundred parts and then try to visualize one part. Impossible, you say? Precisely. Nine times out of ten, Serbian Milorad Cavic would probably have beaten Phelps in the 100-meter butterfly but this particular Olympics was meant to be the venue for that one time out of ten. Destiny.

It is strange how destiny can be different for two great swimmers. 41-year-old Dana Torres lost her 50-meter swim by one one-hundredth of a second. And she and her team missed out on the gold in the 4x100m medley relay by the slimmest of margins. It could have happened to Phelps but it did not. Destiny.

Phelps has won eight gold medals, surpassing Spitz's record of 7 in the '72 Munich Olympics. Phelps stands alone, breaking a record many thought could never be touched. What about Phelps's? It seems impossible but maybe 36 years from now in the 2044 Olympics ... Well, perhaps another generation will marvel at how the unreachable was reached and surpassed by a new Phelps.

If Phelps competes in the London Olympics in 2012, as he is expected to, he should break Soviet gymnast Larissa Latynina's haul of 18 medals (9G, 5S, 4B) from three Olympics ('56, '60, '64). He has 16 (14G, 2B) from Athens and Beijing (2004, 2008). But that is a story for another day. At this moment, let us simply recognize that from now onwards and in any language, "Phelpsian feat" will mean the epitome of superhuman excellence.

Stars Aligning for Phelps

I still think it will be a monumental challenge for Michael Phelps to win eight gold medals in the Beijing Olympics but I also think the stars are beginning to align for him in his quest to break Mark Spitz’s record.

If Jason Lezak didn’t pull off the impossible, anchoring the 4x100-meter freestyle relay to a win over the favored French team, Phelps could only hope for equaling Spitz’s record.

But now it looks as if fate is lending Phelps a hand. The toughest obstacles are behind him and maybe, just maybe, he will pull it off.

I do not recall cheering as lustily for a sporting event as I did at what I was seeing on TV last night. Was it comparable to the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” in the Lake Placid Winter Olympics game when a ragtag bunch of American hockey amateurs beat the mighty Soviet Union 4-3? Who can say but the ancient and powerful joy one feels in seeing the impossible occur in front of one's very own eyes is unforgettable.

Everyone is buzzing about Lezak, and rightly so, but we should not forget the performance of Cullen Jones who swam the third leg of the relay. This African-American swimmer not only helped smash a world record and keep Phelps’s dream alive, he also smashed stereotypes.

About those eight potential golds by Phelps, we hold our breath and hope for the best but I will make a fearless prediction: By the time he is done with the Beijing Olympics, Phelps will have won more Olympic gold medals than anyone in history. His haul will exceed nine, currently held by the quartet of Paavo Nurmi (Finland – Track & Field), Larissa Latynina (Ukraine - Gymnastics), Mark Spitz (U.S. - Swimming) and Carl Lewis (U.S. - Track & Field).

N.B. The funniest and most intelligent ad I have seen so far during NBC’s Olympics telecast shows LeBron James as a defense attorney. The story line is hilarious. Too many ads are pretentious, pompous or just plain silly. The LeBron ad should open eyes.