Improbable Events, Statistics and World Cup 2014

Brazil will be hard-pressed to defeat Germany without Neymar, its star striker, in the World Cup semi-finals on June 8.

Improbable, however, doesn’t mean impossible. With Neymar, Brazil’s chances of winning was good. In his absence, the probability of winning has dipped significantly but it hasn’t become zero either.

Brazil will be looking for inspiration to 1962 when the World Cup was held in Chile. The team had lost its wunderkind, a brash young player named Pele, who had torn a thigh muscle midway through the first half of the Brazil's second game in Chile, a 0-0 draw with the Czechs. His replacement, a 22-year-old player named Amarildo, scored both goals in the 2-1 win over Spain in their next match and another in the final against Czechoslovakia that Brazil won 3-1.

Dribbling genius Garrincha was another who took up the slack, scoring four goals in the next three games as Brazil beat England, Chile and Czechoslovakia again to win their second World Cup in a row.

The question is: Is there anyone in the current Brazilian squad who can take up the roles of Amarildo and Garrincha?

Coach Luiz Felipe Scolari has hinted in training that midfielder Willian is his choice to replace Neymar against Germany. Other options include Ramires, Bernard and Hernanes. Brazil’s woes are compounded by the fact that captain Thiago Silva, the team’s defensive leader, collected his second yellow card against Colombia and will be forced to sit out the game against Germany.

Sentimental favorite Brazil should win against the machine-like and relentless Germans. If the claim is made that Brazil will win even in Neymar’s absence, the null hypothesis says, no, Brazil will lose. The alternative hypothesis, of course, is what the claim says: Brazil will win.

So here’s hoping that the Null will be rejected. Let’s hope p-value is less than 0.05 or even 0.01.

None of the players expected to take up the slack in Neymar’s absence – Willian, Ramires, Bernard or Hermanes – are anywhere close to the wizardry of Amarildo or Garrincha.

But Brazil is hosting the World Cup. It should come down to a question of mind over matter, or flair and finesse over physicality and stamina.

Let justice prevail: Brazil over Germany!

As for Argentina against Holland, this is a chance for Lionel to cement his legacy. If Messi can deliver and help Argentina win over Robben and company, he will be compared favorably with Maradona even in Argentina. The Dutch are relentless like the Germans but they also given to frequent dives and theatrics. Justice again please: Argentina over Holland!

Brazil against Argentina in the finals, now that's a match for the centuries!

Costa Rica Inspires at World Cup 2014

In football’s firmament, Costa Rica is considered a faint star, barely visible next to the supposedly glowing stars of Italy, Uruguay and England.

Someone clearly forgot to mention that to the plucky, never-give-up Costa Ricans in the 2014 World Cup, currently in progress in Brazil.

Whatever may happen in the next phase of the tournament for the team from the tiny nation, the Ticos (formally, Costarricenses) have shown that they can outrun, outfight and out-strategize the best teams in the world, and do it with verve and style.

A nation of about 5 million with a landmass of about 20,000 sq. mi, Costa Rica nurtures a well-deserved reputation for its progressive environmental policies, the only country in the world to meet all five criteria for measuring environmental sustainability. It constitutionally abolished its army permanently in 1949 and has consistently been among top-ranking countries in the Human Development Index.

Is it any wonder that out of a nation of enlightened government come a team of energetic Davids ready to vanquish football’s Goliaths?

Not so fast, you say. There is no proof of any correlation between good governance and football prowess. Besides, this is only the first stage of group games. Next is the knockout phase where anything can result from a maddening combination of luck, pluck, bad and good calls and that x-factor, the intestinal fire to win.

But that’s beside the point. The Ticos have already shown that they can take on the best by believing in themselves, working hard and seizing opportunities whenever they present themselves. They have no superstars, no Messis and Neymars, yet as a cohesive team they are as solid in the back and fluid in the front as any team in the world.

They were in the so-called ‘Group of Death’ and now they are the ones most alive in that group.

We are too focused on name brands and so lose sight of genuine wonders. Costa Rica has so far been the wonder of World Cup 2014. When they beat Uruguay (champions in 1930, 1950) 3-1 in Arena Castelao in Fortaleza and Italy (champions in 1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) 1-0 in Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Brazil, they taught the world one thing: the unheralded can beat the celebrated through fearless, attacking football.

On June 24, the Ticos take on England, a mere formality, since England is already out, having lost both to Italy and Uruguay. If any team deserves pity and scorn in equal measures, it is England’s Three Lions, the most overrated and hyped team in history. To call these “lions” lambs would be to insult lambs. While Costa Rica should play to win on June 24, it should conserve its energy for the next phase and happily settle for a draw.

Costa Rica’s performance lends itself to academic lessons. If Brazil, Argentina, Holland and Germany represent Harvard, Stanford, Berkeley and, say, Caltech, Costa Rica represents a community college. Yet community college students need not feel inferior to students from these elite universities. Through grit, focus and faith in themselves, they can compete with the ivy-league educated students in any field.

On July 23, when two teams compete for football supremacy in the World Cup 2014 final, Costa Rica is unlikely to be one of those two.

But that will not in any way diminish what the tiny nation has already accomplished: They can compete with the best and win.

So, if you are a community college student and you are competing for a job with a Stanford or a Harvard graduate, don’t give up. Prepare for it, give it your best shot and the job can be yours.

Of Teachers and Footballers

Brazil is reeling from strikes, protest marches and simmering resentments over horrendous wealth and income inequality as it hosts teams from 32 countries and stages the planet’s largest sporting event: World Cup Football.

Brazil has so far spent an estimated $11 billion dollars to build stadiums and make ready the twelve cities where the matches will be played. Reports of outrageous bribery and corruption have left the population bitter and angry.

Among thousands of protesters throughout Brazil, one group stood out with its poignant chants and banners: About 200 striking school teachers who were demanding a 20 percent salary increase just to make ends meet. Their chant: "An educator is worth more than Neymar."

Neymar refers to Brazil’s 22-year-old star striker whose exceptional speed and dribbling ability have vaulted him into Football’s elite players. The Spanish Club Barcelona is reputed to have paid his Brazilian club Santos a staggering $138 million transfer fee to play in the Spanish league.

Forget, for a moment, Neymar’s transfer fee and just focus on his annual income. According to Forbes, Neymar pulled in a cool $20 million in the last 12 month through salary, bonus and endorsements.

Let’s put this in perspective.

Based on data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and national statistics agencies, the average annual salary of a Brazilian teacher is estimated to be $18,550.

From a purely monetary point of view, a Brazilian school teacher will have to work for over one thousand years to equal Neymar’s earnings! Equivalently, assuming that his earning remains constant (in fact, bonuses and endorsements increase yearly as a player’s star rises), Neymar earns the combined salary of over a thousand school teachers every year.

So the chant, “An educator is worth more than Neymar,” can only be metaphorically true.

How so?

Teachers shape minds, fire imagination, unleash creativity. Who can predict what their students will create and explore and discover? The magic of their creations and discoveries can transform the world. At least the possibility is there, and it is this elusive possibility that inspires teachers to pursue their passion in spite of society’s indifference to their remuneration. They are held in high regards, for sure, as high as doctors and engineers perhaps, but any society that is comfortable with teachers earning a small fraction of what doctors and engineers earn is a society rife with hypocrisy.

So yes, an educator is worth more than Neymar any day of the year, even if that educator struggles to put food on the table for his family.

If Brazil can win the World Cup (although it won the Cup 5 times, more than any other country, its last victory came in 2002), it is likely that the seething discontent of its football-crazed people will dissipate and some genuine economic, social and political progress will emerge.

If, on the other hand, Brazil makes an early exit from the joga bonito, riots and strikes can break out from the favelas and beyond and engulf the country. This will be particularly problematic considering that the summer 2016 Olympics is expected to be held in Rio de Janeiro from August 5-21.

It is against this frightening possibility that Neymar da Silva Santos Junior and company will have to fight as the green-and-yellow team embarks on its fateful journey on June 12. If the Brazilians can bring the Cup home, even the teachers, at least for the time being, may be inclined to overlook the inequality that has riven this fun-loving country.

Do Cry for Me, Argentina (and Brazil)!

Germany's ruthless dismantling of Argentina 4-0 on the world's biggest sporting stage will haunt the South American nation for decades to come. Somewhere down the road, there maybe revenge or redemption but not anytime soon. Diego Maradona relied far too much on the artistry of Messi and Tevez and perhaps a few others but ignored the fact that he also had to defend his fort. His "attack, attack, attack" style of play could not mask the holes in his defense and midfield. Argentine defense was porous and second-class at best, and the Germans exploited it to the hilt.

The inventive and unselfish Germans had two advantages going into the quarterfinals: a) Michael Ballack's absence and b) the loss to Serbia 1-0 in the group match. The first meant that the predictable and ponderous Ballack would not stymie the free-flowing game of the young and the relentless Germans. The second was a wakeup call that only increased the fierce resolve of the team to win.

But perhaps the greatest asset of the Germans is the mix of their players. Mesut Ozil is a Muslim of Turkish descent. Sami Khedira and Jerome Boateng have Tunisian and Ghanaian fathers., respectively. Cacau is a naturalized Brazilian and Dennis Aogo boasts a Nigerian heritage. Combining forces with Klose, Mueller and the rest of the team, they ran Messi and company ragged for 60 minutes. The last 30 minutes of the game was painful to watch as the Argentines simply folded. They were outrun, outhustled, and outperformed in every aspect of the game. Messi's weak shots were easily blocked. In all, he took 30 shots on goal in the tournament and not one went in, a deeply disappointing performance. Messi may yet redeem himself in 2114 but that's an eternity away.

As for Brazil, although its defense was also poor overall, the player responsible for the perennial favorite to get the boot in the quarterfinals was Kaka. This "star" also failed to score a single goal in the World Cup. The moment of truth came deep into the second half against Holland when Kaka fielded a ball in the penalty area and had ample time to take a look at the goal to line up the perfect shot. He took the shot and ... what a letdown! There was no curve to the ball as it floated harmlessly away. At that moment you knew that Brazil would lose. The only player who lived up to his billing was Robinho but even he proved to be not a finisher like Romario or Ronaldo.

Brazil will have to remain content with the "five-time champion" label for years to come. The 2114 World Cup will be held in Brazil but unless players like Romario or Ronaldo (too much to expect a Pele or a Garrincha) arrive to lead a young and energetic team who can change strategy as the dynamics of the pitch demands, quarterfinals will be as far as the host nation will go.

Brazil and Argentina remind me of India and Pakistan in field hockey. Until the '70s, these two nations always met in the final in the Olympics. Then other nations began investing in the sport and now India and Pakistan are often eliminated even before reaching the quarterfinals stage.

The German brand of soccer we are now witnessing is the result of a decade-long investment in developing new talents and new approaches to the game. German players seem to combine the flair and flamboyance of the South Americans and the athleticism and work ethic of the, well, Germans. It is unlikely that Spain, which was unconvincing in its 1-0 wins against both Portugal and Paraguay, can hold back the irresistible German force. Look for Germany against Holland in the final and for Klose and his rainbow team to hoist the World Cup after a hard-fought game.

Brazil's Blues a Good Thing

Brazil's 2-1 squeaker over North Korea is actually a good thing to have happened to the five-time world champions. With this narrow victory over a mediocre team, Brazil can take stock of its weaknesses and ramp up for the tougher matches coming its way.

It is important to peak at the right time in the World Cup. Peak too early and you almost always lose in the quarterfinals. We did see from Brazil the occasional magic that characterizes jogo bonito, but that was all. There was no finishing to make your blood rush and the music soar. Kaka showed nothing in which to go gaga over his game. In fact, some of his passes were so completely off target that you had to wonder if the real Kaka would show up.

The first goal by Maicon was a lucky one, even if worthy of drawing "Ooooh"s from viewers. A good goalkeeper should have picked that one off. The second goal by Elano from a sublime pass by Robinho was vintage Brazil. But then Brazil slacked off and in the dying minutes, Ji Yun Nam beat Julio Cesar. That was also good for Brazil. It just proved that all this talk of Brazil's defense being one of the world's best is just that: talk. As for Julio being the best goalkeeper in the world? Not yet, not yet.

Brazil got its three points in the frigid night in Johannesburg to sit atop its group. But the message is clear: You have to step up your game if you want to go beyond the next round. Stop passing too much in the penalty box and take more shots at the goal. Artistry for the sake of artistry is foolish unless matched by the ability to get the ball into the net.

All in all, a good lesson for a team that expects to win the first world cup being held in Africa