Improbable Events, Statistics and World Cup 2014

Brazil will be hard-pressed to defeat Germany without Neymar, its star striker, in the World Cup semi-finals on June 8.

Improbable, however, doesn’t mean impossible. With Neymar, Brazil’s chances of winning was good. In his absence, the probability of winning has dipped significantly but it hasn’t become zero either.

Brazil will be looking for inspiration to 1962 when the World Cup was held in Chile. The team had lost its wunderkind, a brash young player named Pele, who had torn a thigh muscle midway through the first half of the Brazil's second game in Chile, a 0-0 draw with the Czechs. His replacement, a 22-year-old player named Amarildo, scored both goals in the 2-1 win over Spain in their next match and another in the final against Czechoslovakia that Brazil won 3-1.

Dribbling genius Garrincha was another who took up the slack, scoring four goals in the next three games as Brazil beat England, Chile and Czechoslovakia again to win their second World Cup in a row.

The question is: Is there anyone in the current Brazilian squad who can take up the roles of Amarildo and Garrincha?

Coach Luiz Felipe Scolari has hinted in training that midfielder Willian is his choice to replace Neymar against Germany. Other options include Ramires, Bernard and Hernanes. Brazil’s woes are compounded by the fact that captain Thiago Silva, the team’s defensive leader, collected his second yellow card against Colombia and will be forced to sit out the game against Germany.

Sentimental favorite Brazil should win against the machine-like and relentless Germans. If the claim is made that Brazil will win even in Neymar’s absence, the null hypothesis says, no, Brazil will lose. The alternative hypothesis, of course, is what the claim says: Brazil will win.

So here’s hoping that the Null will be rejected. Let’s hope p-value is less than 0.05 or even 0.01.

None of the players expected to take up the slack in Neymar’s absence – Willian, Ramires, Bernard or Hermanes – are anywhere close to the wizardry of Amarildo or Garrincha.

But Brazil is hosting the World Cup. It should come down to a question of mind over matter, or flair and finesse over physicality and stamina.

Let justice prevail: Brazil over Germany!

As for Argentina against Holland, this is a chance for Lionel to cement his legacy. If Messi can deliver and help Argentina win over Robben and company, he will be compared favorably with Maradona even in Argentina. The Dutch are relentless like the Germans but they also given to frequent dives and theatrics. Justice again please: Argentina over Holland!

Brazil against Argentina in the finals, now that's a match for the centuries!

Costa Rica Inspires at World Cup 2014

In football’s firmament, Costa Rica is considered a faint star, barely visible next to the supposedly glowing stars of Italy, Uruguay and England.

Someone clearly forgot to mention that to the plucky, never-give-up Costa Ricans in the 2014 World Cup, currently in progress in Brazil.

Whatever may happen in the next phase of the tournament for the team from the tiny nation, the Ticos (formally, Costarricenses) have shown that they can outrun, outfight and out-strategize the best teams in the world, and do it with verve and style.

A nation of about 5 million with a landmass of about 20,000 sq. mi, Costa Rica nurtures a well-deserved reputation for its progressive environmental policies, the only country in the world to meet all five criteria for measuring environmental sustainability. It constitutionally abolished its army permanently in 1949 and has consistently been among top-ranking countries in the Human Development Index.

Is it any wonder that out of a nation of enlightened government come a team of energetic Davids ready to vanquish football’s Goliaths?

Not so fast, you say. There is no proof of any correlation between good governance and football prowess. Besides, this is only the first stage of group games. Next is the knockout phase where anything can result from a maddening combination of luck, pluck, bad and good calls and that x-factor, the intestinal fire to win.

But that’s beside the point. The Ticos have already shown that they can take on the best by believing in themselves, working hard and seizing opportunities whenever they present themselves. They have no superstars, no Messis and Neymars, yet as a cohesive team they are as solid in the back and fluid in the front as any team in the world.

They were in the so-called ‘Group of Death’ and now they are the ones most alive in that group.

We are too focused on name brands and so lose sight of genuine wonders. Costa Rica has so far been the wonder of World Cup 2014. When they beat Uruguay (champions in 1930, 1950) 3-1 in Arena Castelao in Fortaleza and Italy (champions in 1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) 1-0 in Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Brazil, they taught the world one thing: the unheralded can beat the celebrated through fearless, attacking football.

On June 24, the Ticos take on England, a mere formality, since England is already out, having lost both to Italy and Uruguay. If any team deserves pity and scorn in equal measures, it is England’s Three Lions, the most overrated and hyped team in history. To call these “lions” lambs would be to insult lambs. While Costa Rica should play to win on June 24, it should conserve its energy for the next phase and happily settle for a draw.

Costa Rica’s performance lends itself to academic lessons. If Brazil, Argentina, Holland and Germany represent Harvard, Stanford, Berkeley and, say, Caltech, Costa Rica represents a community college. Yet community college students need not feel inferior to students from these elite universities. Through grit, focus and faith in themselves, they can compete with the ivy-league educated students in any field.

On July 23, when two teams compete for football supremacy in the World Cup 2014 final, Costa Rica is unlikely to be one of those two.

But that will not in any way diminish what the tiny nation has already accomplished: They can compete with the best and win.

So, if you are a community college student and you are competing for a job with a Stanford or a Harvard graduate, don’t give up. Prepare for it, give it your best shot and the job can be yours.