The massacre follows one in which 108 people
were slain in the Syrian town of Houla on May 25. Reports have surfaced,
particularly in Germany, that Syrian rebels were actually responsible for the
Houla massacre but most sources close to the ground, including a UN Human
Rights Council group, said evidence pointed towards militia loyal to Assad in
the region.
Bashar
Assad has been exploiting Kofi Annan’s peace plan to continue his genocidal
suppression. In the 15 months of bloodshed, he has been instigating fear among
the country’s 2.1 million Alawites – 12 per cent of the population – that they
will be massacred by the Sunni majority – 75 per cent - if he were to fall.
As
the moment of truth nears in Syria, the opposition has been at pains to assure
the Alawites that they will not be targeted in a post-Assad Syria. “We are all
in this together,” has become the opposition’s motto as they implore ordinary
Alawites to defect.
For
many pundits and policymakers in America, however, the situation in Syria can
only be understood in the context of a geopolitical chess game.
Writing
in the Washington Post, former
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger summarized his analysis of the Syrian
situation this way: “Military intervention, humanitarian or strategic, has two
prerequisites: First, a consensus on governance after the overthrow of the
status quo is critical. If the objective is confined to deposing a specific
ruler, a new civil war could follow in the resulting vacuum, as armed groups
contest the succession, and outside countries choose different sides. Second,
the political objective must be explicit and achievable in a domestically
sustainable time period. I doubt that the Syrian issue meets these tests.”
In
other words, let the killings continue because we are not sure who will inherit
power and whether or not they will push America’s interests. A well-known
columnist, writing in the Los Angeles
Times, raises the same concern: “The situation in Syria is further
complicated by the familiar question of who's the good guy. The bad guy is
clearly Bashar Assad. But his opposition is a mixture of unattractive clerics
and their followers, liberal reformers and left-wing radicals.”
The
question of what is just and what is right do not figure in the equations of
these analysts.
One
consistent voice in the wilderness has been that of New York Times’ Nicholas
Kristof who wrote in a recent column that “when a government devours its own
people, as in Syria or Sudan, there are never easy solutions. That helps
explain President Obama’s dithering … Yet the president is taking prudence to
the point of paralysis … In Syria, we should make clear that unless the
security forces depose Assad in the next 30 days, our Middle Eastern allies
will arm the Syrian opposition. We should work with these allies, as well as
with major powers like Russia and China, to encourage a coup, or a“retirement”
for Assad … Stopping a government from killing its own is an uncertain
business. But our existing policies in Syria and Sudan alike are failing to
stop the bloodshed, and they also are putting us on the wrong side of history.”
Muslims
are aware of the serious problems that can follow the fall of Assad. The path
to openness and responsible governance after decades of tyranny and
dictatorship is not achieved in weeks or months. Just look at Egypt and Libya.
The peoples’ revolution is far from complete. It will take time for a new era
to dawn. So it will be in Syria.
Besides,
Western fear that intolerant religious zealots (always a minority but
exaggerated by Western media) will find a way to turn the Arab Spring into a
Winter of Despair is unfounded. Using a statistically sound sampling technique
called “controlled snowball,” 186 opposition activists were asked about their
preferences for a post-Assad Syrian government. 73% said it was important for
the new Syrian government to protect the rights of Christians. While many
respondents voiced support for religion in the public square, only a small
fraction favored clerical influence in government. As to which country they
would like to see Syria emulate after Assad, 82% chose Turkey. Perhaps the
biggest surprise was that the U.S. earned 69% favorable rating as a political model,
followed closely by France, Germany and Britain.
Bashar
Assad may soon be forced to flee to Moscow as opposition forces overcome their
differences and mount a united assault against the government. There will, of
course, be chaos and turmoil. Some Syrians will be tempted to settle old
scores. Sectarian conflict may raise its ugly head. UN observers may have to be deployed to ensure a
peaceful transition so that one tyranny is not replaced by another.
But there is also reason to believe that Syrians will come out stronger through their trial-by-fire and forge a government of consensus, justice and accountability, with “malice toward none and charity for all.”
But there is also reason to believe that Syrians will come out stronger through their trial-by-fire and forge a government of consensus, justice and accountability, with “malice toward none and charity for all.”